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The two consoles may be at a dead heat for global adoption in 2011. By Steve Watts, 06/30/2009
But by 2011, he says a shift might start to occur, with the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 finishing at 26% each (still behind the Wii at 48%). The strength of Blu-Ray is credited as the primary reason for the shift, and by 2015 he believes the PlayStation 3 might overtake the Xbox 360's global market share. This isn't to say Microsoft will be suffering, however; all three companies are expected to see more revenue even if they drop a few percentage points in the market.
In Japan the Wii is expected to be even more of a reigning king with 65% of the market, and he expects a Wii HD to come by 2010 for under $200. Finally, he suggests that storage space will grow exponentially to a full terabyte within the next ten years, but digital distribution will still only claim 50% of software sales at most.
As always, these are all predictions based on current trends and anything could change. The report doesn't address how new developments like Natal or Sony's motion device could shift the balance, so we'll just have to wait and see if those factors have a heavy impact.
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